New analysis of Cancun by Climatico

The think tank Climatico has published an excellent new briefing of the agreements reached at COP16/CMP6 in Cancun. Beyond providing a very good summary of the elements of the agreements reached at the meeting, the analysis has the following take-aways

1.     The AWG-LCA agreement’s provisions on REDD+ adopts many of the safeguards proposed by Bolivia, resulted in increased emphasis on protection of biodiversity and the rights of indigenous peoples;

a.     The REDD agreement should spur bilateral and multilateral projects in this context, e.g. Norway/Indonesia and California/Acre

b.     In the following year, there is likely to be a fierce battle about whether a REDD+ program should include a market-based mechanism;

2.     The AWG-LCA has been extended for one year. It will continue to discuss the issue of the legal form of an agreement. There are several potential options: 1. a legally-binding agreement that complements the Kyoto Protocol; 2. a replacement to the Kyoto Protocol; or 3. Party cooperation in compliance with COP decisions outside the form of a new treaty.

a.     The AWG-KP negotiations also continue, though there is concern among some countries that the second commitment period will feature a more flexible and voluntary system;

3.     While the ambition of Annex I and non-Annex I States needs to be increased to meet the 2C target, Cancun evinced a level of cooperation that provides hope for the negotiation of a long-term framework to address climate change.

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