For instructors looking for a good brief summary of the 18th COP’s implications for future temperatures, check out the new joint report by Climate Analytics/Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research/Ecofys. Among the report’s take-aways:
- Several Annex I parties agreed to a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol for 2013-2020, Australia, Belarus, the EU and its member States, Kazakhstan, Monaco, Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine.
- Beyond limited participation in the second commitment period, the levels of ambition are well below what’s necessary to avoid temperature increases above 2C pre-industrial, and allowances from the first commitment period commitment period can be carried over, though only 2% can be traded;
- A few countries (Monaco, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Dominican Republic) made new pledges at the 18th COP for emission reductions, though the emissions of most of these parties are de minimis;
- The world is still on pace for temperature increases well above 3C;
- A bright spot is that many countries are increasingly developing national policies to meet their pledges that may increase emissions reductions in the future. This includes efforts to reduce energy consumption and increase GHG emissions reductions. Additionally, there is hopeful movement in other sectors, e.g. international aviation and at the sub-national level.