In the past few days, I’ve summarized the take of the World Resources Institute and WWF on the Copenhagen Accord. A new analysis by Climate Interactive, comprised of researchers from Sustainability Institute, the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Ventana Systems, provides an even more pessimistic assessment. Using the C-Roads computer simulation, the researchers concluded that the current pledges of UNFCCC parties would yield a temperature increase of 3.9C (7.0F) by 2100, the same projection CI made immediately before COP15. CI concluded that based on the current pledges of UNFCCC parties, GHG emissions are slated to rise 0.8% annually between now and 2020. This means that emissions would have to fall at a rate of 3.3% annually thereafter to reduce emissions by 60% below current levels by 2050, the cuts that the Climate Interactive researchers have concluded are necessary to prevent temperatures from rising 2C above pre-industrial levels.
The latest report also includes an extensive section on the assumptions and data used to draw these conclusions. For instructors seeking to develop in-class negotiations for intermediate and long-range agreements to reduce emissions, this data could be extremely valuable.